The Urea Price Trend during Q2 2026 showed how quickly fertilizer markets can change when supply, agriculture, energy costs, shipping, and geopolitical events come together. During the quarter, the global urea market saw a strong rise in prices across major producing and consuming regions. Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Europe recorded quarterly gains ranging from around 21% to 51%. However, the market changed direction sharply toward the end of the quarter, with June bringing large monthly price declines across many regions.

For buyers, farmers, traders, and industries that use urea, Q2 2026 was a clear example of how a supply shortage can push prices higher in a short period. At the same time, the June correction showed that prices can fall quickly when supply conditions improve and buying interest becomes weaker.

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The Urea Price Chart for Q2 2026 therefore tells two different stories. The first part of the quarter was strongly bullish, while the end of the quarter saw a major correction. The Urea Price Index also reflected this change, with June declines of roughly 30% to 42% across many markets.

What Happened to Urea Prices in Q2 2026?

The biggest factor behind the rise in Urea Prices during Q2 was tight supply. Agricultural demand remained firm, particularly as buyers prepared for important planting seasons. At the same time, disruptions to shipping and international trade created additional pressure on the market.

The Israel-USA-Iran conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz had a major effect on the movement of cargo from Gulf suppliers. Higher freight costs, increased insurance costs, delayed vessel schedules, and the need to reroute shipments made some traditional supply sources less attractive or less reliable.

As a result, international buyers increasingly looked toward alternative origins outside the Gulf. China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Russia benefited from this change in buying interest.

Natural gas costs were another important factor. Since natural gas is closely connected with urea production economics, firm feedstock costs helped support prices in producing countries.

But the market did not stay tight throughout the entire quarter. Toward June, supply improved availability and geopolitical pressure began to ease. This reduced some of the urgency among buyers and resulted in a sharp correction.

China Urea Price Trend

China experienced a strong increase in granular fertilizer-grade urea prices during Q2 2026. The market benefited from firm natural gas-related costs, steady trade flows, and strong international buying interest.

Supply concerns became more important as Gulf shipments were disrupted. Buyers who normally depended on Gulf-origin material looked toward other exporting countries, which supported Chinese urea demand.

However, the situation changed toward the end of the quarter. Agricultural became buying less aggressive, while supply availability improved from other exporting regions.

In June 2026, granular fertilizer-grade urea prices in China fell by about 30% from the previous month. Even after this significant decline, the overall quarterly increase remained strong at approximately 38%.

This shows why looking only at a single month's movement can sometimes give an incomplete picture. June was weak, but the market had already built significant gains during the earlier part of Q2.

Technical and Automotive Grade Urea in China

Technical Grade Urea and Automotive Grade Urea followed somewhat different paths from fertilizer-grade urea.

Technical Grade Urea faced softer industrial and automotive-related demand, while domestic supply availability improved. China also summarized exports of these grades from late May, which gradually eased supply restrictions.

As trade flows became more normal, Technical Grade Urea prices increased by around 1.5% in June.

Automotive Grade Urea remained relatively firm because export restrictions had significantly reduced the availability of Chinese-origin material in international markets. Domestic production became therefore more important.

In June, Automotive Grade Urea prices increased by approximately 1%. The movement was much more stable than the sharp correction seen in fertilizer-grade urea.

India Urea Price Trend

India saw some of the strongest quarterly price movements during Q2 2026.

For imported granular fertilizer-grade urea at Kandla, prices rose strongly because of restricted Gulf supply, higher freight costs, and firm agricultural demand ahead of the Kharif planting season.

The connection with Gulf supply was especially important. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz affected shipments and increased the cost and difficulty of moving cargoes.

As conditions improved toward the end of Q2, prices corrected sharply. In June, Indian granular fertilizer-grade urea prices declined by approximately 41% compared with May.

Despite the June fall, the overall quarterly increase was about 43%.

Domestic Technical Grade Urea prices at Vadodara recorded an even stronger quarterly increase of approximately 51%. Tight local availability and reduced import availability from China supported the market for most of the quarter.

In June, however, prices dropped by around 13% as Chinese exports summarized and additional material became available.

Automotive Grade Urea in India also experienced a strong quarterly rise of approximately 45%. Reduced import availability and firm automotive-related demand supported domestic prices. By June, improved supply conditions resulted in a monthly decline of around 12%.

Indonesia and Malaysia

Indonesia and Malaysia both recorded strong urea price increases during Q2.

In Indonesia, granular fertilizer-grade urea prices increased by around 38% during the quarter. Firm agricultural demand, stable natural gas-related costs, and stronger interest from buyers looking for non-Gulf supply supported the market.

However, June brought a sharp correction. Prices fell by approximately 33% from the previous month as global supply conditions improved and buying interest weakened.

Malaysia followed a very similar pattern. Granular fertilizer-grade urea prices increased by around 38% during Q2, supported by firm production costs and agricultural demand across Southeast Asia.

In June, prices declined by approximately 33%. The fall reflected improving supply availability and reduced buying pressure.

These two markets show that the Q2 price increase was not only a Middle Eastern or European story. Asian markets also experienced strong price pressure because international buyers were trying to secure reliable supply.

Middle East Urea Price Trend

The Middle East experienced some of the most direct effects from the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman and Qatar both recorded quarterly increases of approximately 21%. Saudi Arabia also recorded a quarterly increase of around 21%, while the UAE recorded an increase of around 22%.

The main reason was the difficulty of moving positions across the region. Disrupted vessel movements, higher freight costs, increased insurance premiums, and rerouted shipping lanes reduced the amount of urea readily available to international buyers.

Oman saw one of the sharpest monthly corrections in June, with prices falling by approximately 42%.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia each recorded declines of approximately 41% in June, while the UAE also experienced a decline of approximately 41%.

The size of these corrections highlights how quickly prices can respond when supply fears begin to disappear.

Russia Urea Price Trend

Russia also recorded a strong increase during Q2 2026.

Granular fertilizer-grade urea prices increased by approximately 42% during the quarter. Firm natural gas-linked production economics, steady export volumes, and increased demand for non-Gulf origins supported the market.

Unlike some Gulf markets, Russian trade and logistics flows remained comparatively stable during the period. This allowed Russian-origin positions to benefit from stronger international demand.

However, the improvement in global supply conditions toward the end of the quarter eventually affected the market. Russian urea prices fell by approximately 35% in June.

Even with that monthly decline, the quarterly performance remained strongly positive.

What the Urea Price Chart Shows

Looking at the overall Urea Price Chart for Q2 2026, the pattern is relatively easy to understand.

Prices moved upward strongly through much of April and May as buyers faced tight supply and uncertainty. Demand remained healthy, while shipping problems made some supply routes more difficult.

Then, toward the end of the quarter, the direction changed.

June became a correction month across most major markets. Declines of roughly 30% to 42% were recorded in several locations.

The chart therefore shows a steep rise followed by a sharp drop. This does not necessarily mean the market returned to its earlier conditions immediately. Instead, it suggests that some of the risk premium built into prices during the supply disruption was removed once supply conditions improved.

Urea Price Index and Market Direction

The Urea Price Index during Q2 2026 reflects the same broad pattern.

The index moved higher as supply became tighter and buyers became more concerned about availability. Geopolitical risks added another layer of uncertainty, while firm agricultural demand kept purchasing interest strong.

By June, the index began showing substantial declines in many regions.

The key lesson from the index is that urea prices were highly sensitive to changes in supply expectations. When buyers believed material might become difficult to obtain, prices increased rapidly. When supply became easier to access, prices moved lower just as quickly.

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Urea Price Forecast: What Could Happen Next?

The outlook for urea prices after Q2 2026 will depend heavily on supply, agricultural demand, energy costs, and international logistics.

If global supply continues to improve and shipping routes remain more stable, prices could remain under pressure after the sharp June correction. Buyers may also become more cautious after seeing how quickly prices moved down.

However, strong agricultural demand could provide support if fertilizer purchasing increases ahead of important planting periods.

Natural gas costs will also remain an important factor for producers. Higher feedstock costs can make it harder for prices to fall significantly, while lower production costs could create more room for prices to decline.

Geopolitical developments will remain another major factor. Any new disruption to major shipping routes could quickly change market expectations again.

Therefore, the most reasonable forecast is not simply that prices will continue falling. Instead, the market may enter a more balanced period in which supply availability, agricultural demand, and logistics determine the next direction.

The Q2 2026 Urea Price Trend was a clear example of how quickly the fertilizer market can change. Prices rose strongly across Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and India as supply tightened, agricultural demand remained firm, and geopolitical disruptions affected shipping and trade.

China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, and India benefited from stronger demand for alternative supply, while Gulf producers faced direct logistical challenges.

But the story changed in June. Better supply availability, easing tensions, normalized trade flows, and weaker buying interest triggered a major correction. Many markets recorded monthly declines of 30% to 42%, although quarterly gains remained significant.

For anyone following Urea Prices, the main takeaway from Q2 2026 is simple: price movements are not driven by one factor alone. Supply, farming demand, natural gas costs, shipping, trade flows, and geopolitical risks can all influence the market at the same time.

The Urea Price Chart, Urea Price Index , and regional price movements together show that market participants need to watch both short-term changes and the broader quarterly picture. After the sharp Q2 rise and June correction, the next phase of the market will depend on how quickly supply normalizes and whether agricultural demand remains strong.

In short, Q2 2026 was a quarter of sharp gains followed by an equally noticeable correction. The future direction of urea prices will depend on whether improving supply continues to exceed demand and geopolitical risks.

About Price Watch™

Price Watch™ is an India-based, independent raw material price reporting agency that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. Price Watch™ specializes in tracking raw material prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand-supply dynamics. 

The Price Watch™ platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions. Leveraging AI-powered forecasting and over a decade of historical data, Price Watch™ transforms market volatility into actionable opportunity.

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